Lehman Brothers-India Everything to Play For 2007

With the right reforms, India could grow at 10% for a decade

Impressive though its economic transition has been, we judge that India could grow sustainably even faster than at present, and faster than most other studies have suggested, i.e. at 10% or so per annum over the coming decade. This judgement is contingent on India continuing to actively pursue structural economic reforms.
• Naturally, a sharp global economic downturn is a risk to India’s near-term economic growth. While India is one of the least vulnerable economies, it is not immune. Conversely, a period of demand running ahead of supply cannot be ruled out, raising risks of short-term overheating.
• But more important than the ups and downs of the economic cycle are the structural changes behind India’s growth acceleration, contributing to capital deepening and rising productivity. They include the development of the financial system, trade and capital account liberalisation, and more prudent macro management....

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